Reflections on hard times, and a conversation with Grok
This morning, I read a few articles on Medium that inspired me to put down a few thoughts. Most Medium articles are like scary TV news: ‘If it bleeds, it leads.’ They grab attention but don’t offer much help.
I have had a 30 year career, and have lived through a number of hard times. All of this is going to be subjective, your life is the one in focus, not the news, so keep that in mind.
In order to discover if today is as doomy and gloomy as they say, I used Grok to gain insight on similar times in the past.
Accidental preparations for a better life
Over my career, I have experienced a few things that led to an unusual amount of preparation for what has happened in this economy. I enlisted in the Army right out of high school in 1986 to 1990. I wasn’t ready for college, even though I was absolutely planning to go.
I chose the Army because I really didn’t know what I wanted to do back then. I needed to get a bit more motivated to pursue an education. When I enlisted, they offered an “Army College fund” which allowed me to store up some cash to go to school with later.
These choices did lead to a few hard times. These hard times for me were more about leveling up and getting into the economy in a meaningful way. Without a degree or any practical skills, it was hard then. The U.S. was going through the Mortgage catastrophe. (1990 to 1992)
Here are my questions to Grok on this topic, just to put context around this story for you.
If you compare the layoff statistics and economy now to the layoff statistics metrics from 1990 to 1992 how do they compare relatively to today?
“In 1990–1992, the whole country had a bad recession, like a big storm that made jobs super hard to find — unemployment went up to 7.8%, and the economy shrank by 1.4%. Tech jobs dropped by 5%, with big cuts at places like IBM firing over 100,000 people. Now in 2025, tech layoffs are about 183,000, but that’s just 2.8% of tech workers, and the economy is growing steady at 1.8% with only 4.3% out of work. So, back then it hurt more for most folks, but today’s cuts are mostly in tech and not as deep for the whole country.”
The economy and my skillset sacked my castle
When I finished my first Army enlistment, I had zero job skills. The best I could get was retail sales. I did well enough, but the best I could do back then was about $600 a week. Not the end of the world, but with a newborn and a new wife, it was weak. So weak in fact that it fractured my marriage and I ended up bouncing around from job to job and eventually ended up homeless. Yes, homeless. I was evicted from my apartment in the first month by the way, they didn’t give you six months free on the landlord back then. My car was repossessed, (I gave it back, didn’t want to make it bad.)
Lesson learned? Debt is the greatest threat to a good life
If a tech worker was person that had an income over $120,000, how can they land without pain during a layoff? Assuming they didn’t have that cushion, and did have rather high expenses?
Cut Spending Hard and Fast
The moment the layoff hits (or even if you just hear rumors), slash monthly costs from $10k–$15k down to $4k–$6k right away. Cancel everything that isn’t food, rent/mortgage, basic utilities, and health insurance. Sell the fancy car and lease a cheap one, pause 401(k) contributions, stop private school tuition if possible, and move in with family or get roommates for 6–12 months. High earners who did this in 2023–2025 say they bought themselves 6–9 months of breathing room even with almost zero savings.
Upskilling: Building a personal moat
After that hit, I determined to go back in the Army to get my life moving in the right direction. This time however, I made a promise to myself that I would never let my life be that fragile again. I got back in and immediately started taking classes. When I went in, my wife and I got back together.
I worked hard and by the time I got out of the military again on my second enlistment, I had less than one year to finish my Associates degree. (1995 or so.) Incidentally, my college time created ZERO debt because of my earlier investment in the college fund and military service. Most states give vets tuition free education at that level. The service was a good choice.
But despite all of this, you have to know, I lived with anxiety every day. I struggled because I had a family to support. I was always afraid of what could push me to the bottom of the barrel again.
In the context of today’s financial headwinds, and AI taking all jobs, what should tech workers do to ensure they can be employed in the future?
“Learn AI Tools and Keep Studying
AI is changing jobs fast, like a robot helper that does boring tasks, but it needs smart people to guide it. Tech workers should take short online classes every few months to learn how to use AI for coding or data work. This way, you become the boss of the robot, not the one it replaces. Reports say jobs mixing AI with human smarts will grow a lot by 2030, so start now with free sites like Coursera.”
What to do in good times
As time progressed, I became a tech worker. (Dot Com era hello!) I did pretty well, like so many of my peers. 1996 to 2000 was a great time, my career started off well, and I worked while in school. Now I could make $600 on a single Saturday because of my tech skills! But because of the swings of the economy, I did hit some tough times again in 2002 after 9/11. That tough time ended my marriage permanently this time.
But I was stable enough because of the education and new tech experience. My kids were with me because I was doing very well, and I was able to keep ownership of a home, even while unemployed for almost a year. I also had no car payment during this time, just a mortgage and basic expenses.
If you compare the layoff statistics and economy now to the same metrics from the Post 9/11 2001 to 2003 period, how do they compare relatively?
“Back in 2001–2003, after 9/11 and the dot-com crash, way more tech workers lost jobs — like 168,000 in tech alone for 2001, and up to 2 million total jobs gone. That’s a big storm compared to 2025’s about 183,000 tech layoffs so far, which is smaller and spread out. The economy was weaker too: growth dipped to -0.3% in late 2001, unemployment jumped to 6.3% by 2003. Now in 2025, growth is steady at 1.7–1.9%, and jobless rate is just 4.3%. So, today’s bumps feel like a bump in the road, not a full crash like then.”
Madness Seasons
It seems that about every 10 years or so, these madness seasons go into full swing. Tech industry catastrophes have had dramatic effects on my life just like everyone else. In this 2002 era, I decided not just to make myself better, but to build a buffer so that I wouldn’t be impacted so hard by swings. Ultimately it came down to always having more money in the bank than a year’s salary. Not cash necessarily, 401K, IRA, whatever. But a cushion to soften the blow. In 2001 I started to max out my 401K.
What should tech workers do to prepare for these kinds of fluctuations in income and job stability?
“Build a Strong Money Cushion
The number one thing experts tell tech workers is to save 6–12 months of living money in the bank. Many people who got laid off in 2025 say they felt safe because they had this “emergency fund.” Put the money in a simple savings account so you can grab it fast if your paycheck stops.”
A positive mindset is critical
Today, when I read about the things happening to folks due to the “AI Layoffs”, I feel for them. I have to say, it is very hard to go through these times. But holding your head up despite the headwinds is possible. This was about when I began feeding my head with positivity. Les Brown, Tony Robbins, and anything I could listen to that helped me remain positive.
Setting your mind to a positive end, and determining what you could do to survive it is the key. Building a moat around your life is critical if you want to survive the “Madness Seasons”. The moat should be a combination of upskilling your life, strengthening your mind, as well as creating the cushion in good times.
Education as a benefit is only a benefit if you use it
Remember one thing. When you have a good job, it is not a time to sit back and gloat over how great your life has become. It is time to invest. Invest in yourself, invest in your life, invest in the market. If things are good at work, and your company offers any kind of educational incentive, USE it.
You may hear about people that can crank away for 20 years in a company and never leave. Look around at the tech layoffs and I defy you to say that is possible today. Instead every good phase should be accompanied with taking classes or getting certifications. You cannot assume things will stay the same for more than one year at a time.
Education should be part of every compensation package you pursue when getting a new job. And you are insane to let these benefits go unused while you work.
Back to the conversation:
What is the total amount of the economy fueled by tech worker incomes?
“Tech workers help make gadgets and apps that power a big part of America’s money-making machine. Their work adds about $2 trillion dollars each year to the country’s total economy, which is like 10% of all the stuff we buy and sell. This is just from tech jobs alone, based on reports from groups like CompTIA that count jobs and sales in tech cities like San Francisco.”
Ok Grok, then what is the total percentage of tech workers laid off in 2025?
“In 2025, trackers like Layoffs.fyi say about 183,000 tech workers in the U.S. lost their jobs so far. With around 6.5 million total tech workers, that means roughly 2.8% got laid off. This is like one out of every 35 tech folks facing cuts, mostly from big companies fixing their teams.”
What impact will that percentage of layoffs have on the overall economy?
“That 2–3% of tech workers losing jobs is like a tiny splash in a huge ocean — it won’t sink the whole U.S. economy. Tech is about 10% of all jobs, so these cuts might slow spending a bit on houses or gadgets, maybe trimming growth by 0.1–0.2%. But with other jobs still strong, it’s more like a bumpy road than a crash, say experts watching money flows.”
What kind of impact will it have to those laid off?
“Most laid-off tech workers have skills that companies still want. In 2025, over 60% find a new job in under 6 months, often at the same or higher pay. They use savings (many have 6–12 months of money saved) and get big severance packages — like 3 to 9 months of pay plus health insurance. It feels scary at first, but for many it’s just a short break before a better job.”
Is there any proof of this last statement of the “Most will be fine within 3–6 months”?
“Yes, Strong Proof from Job Site Studies
A big job-hunting website called ZipRecruiter looked at tech folks who got laid off. They found that 79 out of 100 got a new job in just 3 months or less. This was from data in 2022, but it shows how fast skilled tech people bounce back, even with some ups and downs in the job world.”
What should you be doing?
Based on my writings, and also on the comments from Grok, there are a few things I suggest folks do to build their own moat. First is that upskilling process. I have built my own skills through a combination of college education, as well as getting a massive amount of certifications.
One thing to note however, education does not have to be done all at once. Spread it out. Take it at a pace you can handle. Get it paid for as part of your employment and ensure that you don’t squander anything.
Adding depth to the moat with education and certifications
I took my initial associates in tech skills, PC maintenance and Repair along with Networking. Worked to a Certified Novel Administrator, though I didn’t take that test.
At the Bachelors level, I went after Business Management of Information Systems. I also pursued, but have not finished a Masters in Information Systems, as well as Data Science. I am not yet sure if I want to finish, only because I may be closer to retirement than my next career.
I have a few commercial level certifications:
+> Proposal writing (APMP Foundation level certification)
+> Cyber Security (CISSP)
+> Certified Third Party Risk Management Professional (CTPRP)
I prepared for these certifications in a variety of ways. The APMP was self prep, the CISSP and CTPRP were both paid by my employers. I have also certified on about 20 or more products that I have supported over the years.
If you have read this far, I would suggest a few sources for courses. If you have LinkedIn, and pay for it, use their certification program. It isn’t necessarily about the cert that gets you a job. It is about rounding out your skills so you understand what you should know. Be ahead of things, not always catching up.
I have also found it worth paying for Coursera. I have the annual subscription right now, (2025) because my employer doesn’t have a tuition reimbursement program. So I ponied up some cash while I have an income, to ensure I continue pushing things forward.
If you are inclined to pursue something like this, I have an affiliate link here for you to sign up. Coursera has a pretty good spread of topics, and you can get college level credit that can help you in multiple areas.